Bitcoin Bottom Index Score
54 / 100
Strong bottom conditions forming
Multiple bottom conditions are forming, but not yet extreme.
Bitcoin Bottom Index
Our proprietary Bitcoin Bottom Index tracks whether BTC is entering a bottoming zone. Index is using valuation, miner, and market-structure evidence.
A high score means historical bottom conditions are present. It does not mean the exact low is in.
Current conditions show valuation reset and market-structure stress, but the score is still below prior major Bitcoin bottom zones.
- BTC reference price
- $63,543
- Score
- 54 / 100
- Regime
- Strong bottom conditions forming
- Last updated
- 13 Jun 2026, 07:00 UTC
Research note
Why 59/100 is not a confirmed Bitcoin bottom signal.
We reconstructed the BBI across prior BTC bottoms. Prior major bottoms typically scored 80+, while the current score indicates bottom conditions forming.
Historical calibration
Prior major BTC bottoms usually reached 80+.
Using the current CVL scoring methodology, prior major Bitcoin bottoms typically scored 80+ on the bottom date. The 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022 bottom windows reached high scores, but 100 was rare and only appeared in the 2022 window.
2015 cycle bottom 90 on bottom date
2018 cycle bottom 91 on bottom date, max 95 within +/-90D
2020 Covid bottom 88 on bottom date, max 92 within +/-90D
2022 bear / FTX bottom 86 on bottom date, max 100 within +/-90D
Bucket Scores
The score separates valuation, miner stress, and market structure so a single sentiment measure cannot dominate the dashboard.
Valuation
27 / 5450% filled
Tracks whether spot price and aggregate value measures are near historical long-cycle stress zones.
Market Structure
15 / 3050% filled
Tracks long-cycle trend references and drawdown conditions around prior bear-market lows.
Miner / Network Stress
12 / 1675% filled
Tracks miner revenue pressure and network stress/recovery conditions.
Scored Indicators
These indicators are computed from the latest CVL BTC bottom pipeline snapshot. The score updates automatically from the scheduled refresh.
MVRV Ratio
Compares market value to realized value. Readings below 1 indicate price below aggregate realized cost basis.
Source: CVL pipeline: Coin Metrics-derived realized-cap data
Bucket Valuation
Current 1.19 MVRV
Zones Watch1.0 <= MVRV < 1.2 BottomMVRV < 1.0
Status Watch
Points 7.5 / 15
MVRV Z-Score
Measures the deviation of market value from realized value relative to historical variation.
Source: CVL pipeline: Coin Metrics-derived realized-cap data
Bucket Valuation
Current 0.33 z-score
Zones Watch0 <= MVRV Z-Score < 1.0 BottomMVRV Z-Score < 0
Status Watch
Points 7.5 / 15
Price vs Realized Price
Tracks whether spot is near or below the aggregate realized price.
Source: CVL pipeline: Coin Metrics-derived realized-cap data
Bucket Valuation
Current 1.19x realized price
Zones Watch1.0x to 1.2x realized price BottomBelow realized price
Status Watch
Points 6 / 12
NUPL
Shows aggregate unrealized profit or loss. Low or negative readings indicate broad holder stress.
Source: CVL pipeline: Coin Metrics-derived realized-cap data
Bucket Valuation
Current 0.158
Zones Watch0 <= NUPL < 0.25 BottomNUPL < 0
Status Watch
Points 6 / 12
Mayer Multiple
Compares spot price to the 200-day moving average as a trend-discount measure.
Source: CVL pipeline: self-calculated moving averages
Bucket Market Structure
Current 0.82 Mayer
Zones Watch0.7 <= Mayer Multiple < 1.0 BottomMayer Multiple < 0.7
Status Watch
Points 6 / 12
200WMA Distance
Measures spot against the long-cycle 200-week moving average reference.
Source: CVL pipeline: self-calculated moving averages
Bucket Market Structure
Current 2.6% vs 200WMA
Zones WatchAbove 200WMA and within 10% BottomAt or below 200WMA
Status Watch
Points 5 / 10
Drawdown from ATH
Captures broad cycle dislocation relative to the prior all-time high.
Source: CVL pipeline: self-calculated market-structure metrics
Bucket Market Structure
Current -49.1%
Zones Watch-65% < drawdown <= -45% BottomDrawdown <= -65%
Status Watch
Points 4 / 8
Puell Multiple
Compares miner issuance revenue to its yearly average to identify miner revenue stress.
Source: CVL pipeline: self-calculated miner/network metrics
Bucket Miner / Network Stress
Current 0.7 Puell
Zones Watch0.5 <= Puell Multiple < 0.8 BottomPuell Multiple < 0.5
Status Watch
Points 4 / 8
Hash Ribbon Recovery
Tracks miner capitulation and recent recovery using aggregate hashrate-derived ribbons.
Source: CVL pipeline: self-calculated miner/network metrics
Bucket Miner / Network Stress
Current 20 days since recovery
Zones WatchMiner capitulation active BottomHash-ribbon recovery within 60 days
Status Hit
Points 8 / 8
Methodology
Score zones, not exact ticks.
The CVL BTC Bottom score is not designed to predict the exact low tick. It measures whether Bitcoin is entering a historical value, stress, and recovery zone. Historically, major BTC bottoms clustered around 80+ on this score. Scores in the 55-69 range indicate bottom conditions are forming, but not yet in historical major-bottom territory.
Current MVRV-Z readings around 0.25 to 0.32 are consistent with valuation reset. Historically stronger cycle-bottom zones are closer to zero or negative, so this indicator remains a watch condition rather than a full hit.
Realized-loss capitulation is being researched as a future model input. It is not included in the current score because verified historical realized-loss data is not yet available in the local pipeline.
Recent backtests found that, with the currently available local data, market-structure indicators such as Mayer Multiple and drawdown have had stronger historical BTC bottom detection power than MVRV-Z alone. MVRV-Z remains useful for valuation reset, but not as a standalone bottom-confirmation signal.
Context, not confirmation
These indicators describe sentiment, attention, macro conditions, and popular floor narratives. They are useful context, but they do not confirm a bottom without valuation and capitulation evidence.
Fear & Greed Index
12 / 100Context-only sentiment measure
Fear alone does not confirm a bottom and is excluded from the score.
Deep capitulation combo
InactiveMVRV Z-Score < 0 and Mayer Multiple < 0.7
The backtested combo is exported separately and does not control the whole dashboard score.
Best single indicator
mvrv_lt_1_0Latest backtest ranking
Loaded from the single-indicator result table when available.
Selected combo
mvrv_z_lt_0__mayer_lt_0_7Latest selected deep-capitulation rule
Loaded from recommended_minimal_combo.json when available.
Data coverage date
2026-06-12Latest feature-matrix row
The dashboard uses the latest row in btc_bottom_feature_matrix.csv.
Method note
Why this is different from Fear & Greed
Fear & Greed measures market mood. The Bitcoin Bottom Index measures whether low sentiment is supported by valuation, miner stress, and market-structure evidence.
This dashboard is for research and education only. It is not financial advice, not a price prediction, and not a recommendation to buy or sell Bitcoin.